After gaining worldwide media attention in 2009 that bordered on mass hysteria, reports on swine flu have all but disappeared in the news. What is the status of H1N1 for 2010? Is it still a pandemic and does the public need to fear a mutated version?
Current H1N1 Swine Flu Statistics
As media attention has drifted away from the number one story of 2009, so has public attention. Swine flu no longer dominates the news and as a result, it has been relegated to an afterthought in the public's mind. Fears about H1N1 have subsided, so why is swine flu still being seen as a pandemic and why is the Centers for Disease Control still urging caution?
The CDC reports that flu activity is currently low nationwide, although there are still H1N1 2009 viruses being reported. Furthermore, these same viruses are circulating in the Southern Hemisphere which entered its flu season in April. Both the CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO), are still calling the H1N1 virus a pandemic.
WHO on April 30, 2010 reported that, "As of 25th of April worldwide more than 214 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including over 17919 deaths." The CDC estimates that from April 2009 through March 13, 2010 in the U.S. there were between:
- 43 million and 88 million cases of 2009 H1N1
- 192,000 and 398,000 H1N1-related hospitalizations
- 8,720 and 18,050 2009 H1N1-related deaths
The CDC has maintained that actual data on hospitalizations and deaths is grossly under-reported. Data is gained from laboratory-confirmed outcomes and unfortunately that includes "incomplete testing, inaccurate test results, or diagnosis that attribute hospitalizations and deaths to other causes, for example, secondary complications to influenza."
H1N1 Swine Flu in 2010 and Beyond
So why is the CDC still concerned about H1N1? The main concern rests in the statistics for vaccinations. By the end of Feb. 2010, an estimated 72 – 81 million people had been vaccinated against 2009 H1N1. Unfortunately reports the CDC, with a population of 300 million in the United States, many people are still susceptible, particularly as 2009 H1N1 is still circulating.
Experts have always generated fears about an H1N1 swine flu mutation. This is not uncommon; viruses mutate to survive and the H1N1 seasonal virus (not the same as the H1N1 swine flu), has built up a resistance to Tamiflu as seen in 75 cases worldwide reports WHO.
Dr. Keiji Fukuda, chief flu adviser to the W.H.O.’s director general told the NY Times that this doesn't warrant alarm. "It is more likely that we are not seeing a major shift,” Fukuda said. Yet the NY Times also reports that one isolated case in the Ukraine, had mutated to the point that the swine flu vaccine might not work as well.
Still, Fukuda implies that flu viruses mutate so quickly, that to report each individual change could create an issue for the public where none exists. April was the 1-year anniversary since swine flu was first recognized and the CDC is still urging the public to get vaccinated.
In a press conference on April 01, 2010, Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunizations and Respiratory Diseases said, "The virus is still circulating. And people do continue to get sick. As we mentioned earlier this week, Georgia and a couple other southeastern states are seeing increases in disease right now."
In fact the CDC reports that the H1N1 swine flu virus is the predominant virus in circulation for the 2009-2010 flu season. With that in mind, Schuchat urges vaccination saying that complacency should be avoided and that most people would still benefit from vaccination. Time Magazine reports that for those already vaccinated, immunity should last around 90 years... or until the virus mutates.
Update Sep. 09, 2010: On Aug. 26, 2010, Johns Hopkins Medicine, released a new study in which it was found that children with Sickle Cell disease experience greater complications from H1N1 swine flu than seasonal flu. The report available at Medline Plus, says that children with swine flu are far more likely to develop acute chest syndrome, a leading cause of death in children with sickle cell disease. Furthermore, a study published in the Annals of Neurology and released today, Sep. 20, 2010, said that children who contracted the 2009 swine flu virus suffered more seizures and other nervous system problems than those with seasonal flu.
Read on: 2010-11 Flu and Swine Flu Facts – Effectiveness and Season Onset
Sources:
The Centers for Disease Control; cdc.gov; (accessed May 06, 2010).
World Health Organization; who.int; (accessed May 06, 2010).
McNeil, Donald G. Jr. "Experts Say Swine Flu Mutations Do Not Warrant New Alarm;" The NY Times; nytimes.com; Nov, 27, 2009; (accessed May 06, 2010).
Blue, Laura, "How Long Does Flu Immunity Last?" Time Magazine; time.com; Aug 26, 2008; (accessed May 06, 2010).
Elizabeth Batt - Elizabeth Batt is a former large animal nurse, certified NREMT, lover of equines and conservationist.
Join the Conversation